lunes, 4 de mayo de 2009

Estuvo justificada la alarma?

Hoy el Times publica un artículo interesante en donde analiza la respuesta del Gobierno de México y el de los Estados Unidos, pero sobre todo explica dos cosas importantes:
1) Una pandemia no es igual al apocalipsis
2) La fase 6 no implica que el virus sea mortal

Was the Alarm of the Swine Flu Justified?
"If it does indeed turn out that H1N1 is just the normal flu by another name, we may look back on last week's rapid response with chagrin — and be that much less responsive the next time a new pandemic knocks on the world's door.
First of all, it's important to understand that pandemic does not necessarily equal apocalypse. A pandemic occurs when a new flu virus emerges and starts spreading easily from person to person, and then from country to country. (To declare stage 6, the WHO needs to see sustained spread of the H1N1 virus in multiple regions of the world; so far, it's only happened in North America.) A pandemic doesn't mean that the new virus is unusually deadly, only that it spreads easily — as H1N1 seems to do. It wasn't possible to wait to find out how virulent H1N1 would be before initiating a global response; like a fire department receiving an emergency call, the only responsible choice was to snap into action, even if it later turns out to be a contained blaze."
Las últimas noticias en Alemania (y creo que en algún otro lugar del mundo) son que el virus ha sido contagiado a los cerdos, por lo que éste podría mutar nuevamente, dando como resultado un virus de influenza modificado.
Aún así, no hay razones para la histeria.

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